Is the Saddam Hussein message authentic?

asks Eric Mueller

YES, just as well to be cautious. The editor of al-Quds al-Arabi seems to think the message from Saddam Hussein is authentic, that the signature matches, etc. I can't say the style is identical with Saddam's speeches, but then obviously the situation and his mood are quite different. There's nothing that could be called "out of character" in the message.

Underneath all this there is a great deal going on. For example: You ran a story from Gulf newspapers which quoted Iranian papers claiming that Saddam had cut a deal and run off to Russia. The Iranians have been pushing that story right from the fall of Baghdad with no evidence. Its main aim I think is to discredit Saddam Hussein with Iraqis and help encourage the Shi'i Iraqis to support the various Shi'a groups that are controlled by Tehran.

Iran is taking advantage of Iraq's weakness to put Mesopotamia under their own dominion.

It's a regional game that goes back to the Achaemenians. Iran could dominate the whole Middle East region if it controlled Mesopotamia, and it had to control Mesopotamia if it wanted to be a regional power of any kind. By contrast the Babylonians, Assyrians, Byzantines, Ottomans, and Saddam Hussein representing Arab Nationalist aspirations, could only keep power if they could keep Iran out of Mesopotamia.

Not all the Iraqi Shi'a who are demonstrating these days are exactly pro-Iran, but there are many leading Shi'a organizations that have been waiting in Iran for years and that are going all out right now to secure Iranian control of the Shi'a movements in Iraq, so that Iran picks up the pieces when the US leaves. Obviously they want to lock out the secular, pan-Arab Baath or any pan-Arab movement that might compete for leadership of the Iraqis against the US occupation, and keep Iraqis in the Arab fold.

SO THE stories that Saddam turned traitor (which I think are just not credible) have to be viewed in the context of the Iranian propaganda war. Such stories are also meant to counter the version that was highlighted in the translation I submitted to you under the title "The Deal" (which one week later came out in other Arab newspapers, where basically all the details of "the Deal" were confirmed other than the death of Saddam Hussein under the American bombs.)

One point of significance in "the Deal" (which I think went unsaid there) was the fact that the head of the Republican Guard who allegedly sold out to the Americans, Maher Sufyan, is, by name, Shi'i.

Meanwhile, of course, any Iraqi resistance that is not interested in exchanging American control for Iranian, would try to rally Iraqis around Saddam or at least on an Arab nationalist basis. This is precisely what the Leadership of the Resistance and Liberation of Iraq is doing in its communiques.

While the US is not interested in Iranian domination of Iraq, it seems more determined to stamp out the Baath and Arab nationalism. This would doubtless be in keeping with the Zionist preference too, but the Zionists would like the Americans to stay in Iraq permanently to keep the Arabs divided and to keep Iran far away from them. How long America will want to do that, and how many lives they're willing to lose for the protection of the Zionist state are, of course, very good questions.

Arabist Eric Mueller is this website's expert on Middle Eastern affairs.

English press is silent - Arab sources circulate alleged defiant message from Saddam Hussein