New York, Saturday, April 17, 2004 Israel Hears
Lebanese Echoes In American Occupation Woes
By Ofer Shelah TEL AVIV -- STUNG by accusations
that his agency botched its pre-war Iraqi threat
assessments, Israel's military intelligence chief
insisted this week that Iraq's weapons of mass
destruction were real and would eventually be
found. David
Irving comments: UPON reflection, it seems strange that
of all the countries with most to gain
from a reversal of the "deteriorating
American position" in Iraq, Israel is one
nation which has so far failed to offer
either a military contingent -- despite
her lavish equipment with American arms
and technology -- or financial
support. In the first Gulf War of
course she was urgently "asked" to keep
out, which was a nice position to be in.
This time there has been no such request
-- just silence from Tel Aviv. Time to stand up and be
counted -- and to put your own men in the
firing line, instead of asking other
nations to bleed for you? Just a
thought. | "We have verified intelligence," the spy chief,
Major General Aharon Ze'evi-Farkash, told
the daily Yediot Aharonot in an April 11
holiday interview. "I'm speaking about tens of
launchers, tens of missiles and several chemical
and biological warheads. Either they
hid them or they moved
them somewhere. In the end they'll turn up."Ze'evi admitted he was speaking out of pique,
wounded by a scathing Knesset intelligence review
last month. But his words had an uncomfortable
ring. Like most Israelis in or out of uniform, he
ardently supported the American invasion last year
because of Iraq's very real threat to Israel and,
it was commonly assumed, to the West. Even the
liberal daily Ha'aretz saluted the American
invasion last month in an editorial on the war's
first anniversary. Now, with the American occupation in trouble and
anti-war sentiment rising in the United States,
Israelis are deeply alarmed -- but uncertain how to
proceed. "We are crossing our fingers for the Americans
in Iraq," Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz told
Yediot last week. "Their success is vital
for world peace." Last year, on the eve of the war, Israel was a
quiet but enthusiastic supporter of America's war
plans. Saddam Hussein's military power, it was
universally agreed, made him one of the Jewish
state's most dangerous adversaries. He had sent
troops to fight in almost every war against Israel,
and had fired nearly 40 Scud missiles at it during
the 1991 Gulf War. His overthrow was seen as
eliminating Israel's most serious existential
threat, undercutting support for radicals and
opening the way for a new relationship with the
Palestinians. Despite the strong
feelings here, official spokesmen took care in
the months before last year's invasion to keep a
low profile, fearing that aggressive advocacy
would fuel accusations that Israel or its Jewish
allies were pushing America into war for
Israel's benefit. Nonetheless, top government and military figures
did not hide their view that the war presented a
unique chance to change the face of the Middle
East. Many predicted it would bring about the end
of the intifada, dashing the hopes of Palestinian
Authority chairman Yasser Arafat that the
Arab world would rise to support him. They also
spoke of a chance for positive changes in the
relationships between Israel and hostile countries
such as Syria or Iran, once the American superpower
literally knocks at their door. The army's intelligence branch eagerly
cooperated with American and British agencies,
sharing information on Iraqi
capabilities and intentions. Sources here
deny that Israel supplied biased information, but
it plainly saw the possibility of overthrowing
Saddam as highly beneficial -- and its intelligence
collaboration was meant to help the American
action. Recent investigations, including the
controversial report by the Knesset's Foreign
Affairs and Defense Committee, indicate that the
intelligence-sharing created a negative [sic.
They mean
positive] feedback effect:
Information that Israel gave to Western agencies
was then passed back to the Israeli intelligence
community, ostensibly proving the initial report to
be true. When the war began, the nation's political and
military brass showed ill-disguised feelings of
elation. Isolated contrarians in the press and the
left-wing opposition were hardly noticed. Anti-war
demonstrations in America and Europe were largely
ignored in the face of what was expected to be a
swift and certain victory. Popular opposition to
the war in most European countries was seen as
another sign of the old continent's weakness and
bias toward Arabs. A year later, watching events deteriorate,
Israelis are doubly frustrated. Never having heard
the arguments against the war, most were unprepared
for the possibility of failure. Indeed, whatever
analyses may yet emerge from Washington or other
capitals, Israel clearly did benefit from the
removal of Saddam as a military force on the
eastern front. That factor alone has substantially
eased Israel's defensive posture. Assessments of
Israel's situation in the event of an American
withdrawal are almost universally bleak. But because Israel uniquely benefited from a war
that is increasingly controversial in America and
around the world, fears of speaking out have grown
even stronger than they were before the war. Mofaz convened a meeting of defense chiefs a
month ago to examine the
worsening American position in Iraq and
consider the consequences for Israel if this
deterioration continues. Participants reportedly
pointed to the possibility of Shi'ite radicals
turning the country into an ally of neighboring
Iran. Increased terrorist activity by Hezbollah,
Hamas and Islamic Jihad was predicted. Moderate
countries such as Egypt and Jordan would be forced
to distance themselves from a weakened
Washington. Operationally, an American failure to establish
a friendly regime in Baghdad would force Israel to
reconsider defense cuts on its eastern front, where
large tank forces previously positioned for a
possible Syrian-Iraqi invasion had been scaled down
over the last year. That would require increases in
defense spending, which has been cut over the past
year as part of an austerity budget. The defense minister, whose views usually echo
those of the prime minister, laid out the scenario
with unexpected bluntness in his Yediot
interview last week. "If the Americans manage to control the
situation in Iraq, which Israel is convinced they
will, it will have a positive impact on the whole
Middle East, the oil market and the international
community's authority," Mofaz said. On the other hand, "if the Americans are forced
to withdraw from Iraq as a result of terrorist
pressures, a new and dangerous Arab regime will
seize power. The axis of evil will lift its head
again and threaten world peace." Magnifying Israeli discomfort is the awkward
parallel between America's troubles in Iraq and
Israel's own 1982 invasion of Lebanon, which led to
a two-decade quagmire and ended in unilateral
withdrawal. Like America in Iraq, Israel in Lebanon -- led
by none other than then-defense minister and
current Prime Minister Ariel Sharon --
presumed to do much more than conquer territory. It
tried to create a new order and install a friendly
leadership, betting on Christian factions with
which it had close ties. But the ambitious plan
quickly drowned in a sea of blood and chaos. Along
the Israeli border, Shi'ite forces seized power
under the radical Hezbollah organization, which
began by harassing Israeli troops and ultimately
became a global terrorist threat. Sharon studiously steered away from the subject
of Iraq in recent media interviews he granted in
advance of this week's visit to Washington to
discuss his disengagement plan. It seems unlikely
that even if the subject came up in his meetings
with the President, he would offer anything but
support. Still, the very presence of Sharon, who
had to leave his office as defense minister as a
result of the Lebanon war, could serve as a grim
reminder to his host of what might happen should a
controversial war go wrong. With reporting by the
Jewish Telegraphic Agency. -
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